The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the US economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023. While consumer spending activity has weakened following a large spike in January, it has not fallen off as quickly as expected. Because of this we are decreasing the severity of the GDP contractions we forecast in Q2 2023 and Q3 2023. However, we now expect the weakness in economic activity to persist into early 2024 and have downgraded our forecast for Q4 2023, Q1 2024, and Q2 2024. On inflation, we expect to see progress over the coming quarters, but the path will be bumpy. We forecast one final 25 bps hikes from the Fed  in June and no rate cuts until 2024.