The Conference Board forecasts that US economic growth will continue to slow over the reminder of 2022 and a recession will begin around the end of the year. Positive momentum leading into the Q4 yield a modest upgrade to our 2022 forecast. However, new Fed guidance has resulted in a downgrade to our 2023 outlook. Recent progress in inflation data are welcome, but much more work is needed. Inflation will remain elevated in 2023. Job growth continues to be robust but may be cooling. However, even with a recession labor market tightness will persist.