While the prospects for a ‘soft landing’ have risen, The Conference Board believes it is more probable that the US economy will slip into a short and shallow recession in early 2024. Consumer spending was strong over the summer period but is beginning to cool. Moderating real income gains, falling savings and rising debt will likely further curb consumer spending heading into 2024. US labor market tightness is moderating according to the October jobs report. As the economy cools in early 2024 so too will the labor market. On inflation, progress is being made, but the path to 2% will be long and bumpy. We believe an additional 25 bps rate hike in Dec is possible, but don’t foresee any cuts until mid-2024.