The Conference Board forecasts that US economic growth will continue to slow over the reminder of 2022 and a recession will begin before the end of the year. Data revisions and positive momentum leading into the third quarter yield a modest upgrade to our forecast. However, mounting headwinds will soon reverse this. Strength in the labor market and the services sector continue to support the economy and offset some of the downsides. Persistently high inflation is driving rapid monetary policy tightening. The inflation problem may ease, but it will not disappear in the near term.