US View: While the worst is likely behind us, the path forward remains uncertain

June 2020 | Economy Watch Reports

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With the first wave of COVID-19 cases receding, the US economy is in the process of reopening. However, given the severity of the contraction (which was just officially classified as a recession by the NBER) a great deal of improvement will be needed before the US economy returns to pre-COVID-19 performance. The shape of the recovery also remains uncertain and additional waves of the virus could result in another economic downturn. An industry-based forecast model developed by The Conference Board yields two scenarios for 2020 with a range of annual economic contractions of -5.7 to -6.1 percent in 2020 compared to 2019.