The Conference Board Economy Watch China View (Oct 2020 Data)
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Economy Watch | China

Monthly updates on the state of the economy in China

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The Conference Board Economy Watch China View (Oct 2020 Data)

December 01, 2020 | Article

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  • Impact of COVID-19 Crisis on the Chinese Economy – Data suggest that the recovery of demand in China is strengthening enough to yield a Q4 GDP reading that is close to the pre-pandemic level. The current pace of economic recovery should thus sustain through early 2021, but momentum is likely to weaken by or before the 2H as a function of expected slowdowns in both property investment and exports.
  • Investment Trends – Investment growth continues to uptick, with manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure all advancing. Looking forward, ample funding should support continued investment growth in real estate and infrastructure development through the near-term. The longer-term outlook for investment will depend on the government’s policy stance regarding financing for highly leveraged real estate developers and for indebted local governments. In both areas, policy is expected to gradually tighten. 
  • Consumption Trends – Retail sales continue to strengthen on the back of diminishing public concern about COVID-19 infection risks as well as the gradually improving labor market conditions. However, a full recovery in consumption will be slow coming due to lags in both employment and household income growth.  
  • Trade Trends – Export growth continues to accelerate. The favorable factors supporting China’s export growth – strong home electronics/ICT product demand, strong PPE and medical product demand, and share gains in these and other durable goods’ categories due to COVID-19 disruptions elsewhere – should remain in play for the coming several months. However, China’s export growth will inevitably decline when these factors peter out. 

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AUTHOR

YuanGao

Yuan Gao

Former Senior Economist, China Center for Economics and Business
The Conference Board

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