Economy Watch | Emerging Markets

Economy Watch: Emerging Markets View (April 2024)

April 16, 2024

Our latest forecasts suggest global growth trends are stabilizing after a period of extreme pandemic-related volatility. The global composite PMI index continued to improve in March, pointing to improving business activity momentum at the end of the first quarter. Growth forecasts for Developing Asia are unchanged this month following major upgrades to the China and India outlooks in March. Growth forecasts for Latin America inched down for 2024 on more weakness in Argentina, but broadening rate cuts should help growth rebound in 2025. We upgraded our Middle East & North Africa forecasts on expectations that higher oil prices will drive stronger economic growth in the Gulf economies. Growth forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa were unchanged in April; South Africa should improve this year, while Nigeria poses growing downside risks. Growth forecasts for Russia & Southeastern Europe improved for 2024 mainly due to a stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP report from Russia.