Emerging markets are on course for above average growth this year and next, but downside risks remain high

After varied Q3 GDP reports, we expect growth to come in more evenly positive in Q4 as drags from the delta wave seem to have faded. Increased activity as highlighted by high frequency mobility indicators is supported by accelerated vaccination campaigns. This should also reduce some of the pressures on strained global supply chains. The pandemic remains a key uncertainty in the outlook, underscored by the emergence of the new Omicron variant. Another uncertainty is the timing and pace of US Federal Reserve (FED) monetary tightening, with the FED increasingly tilting towards a more hawkish stance.