Economy Watch | Emerging Markets

Economy Watch: Emerging Markets View (February 2024)

February 22, 2024

Upgrades to US GDP forecasts lifted the global GDP growth projection for 2024. Still, growth is likely to be slower for developing economies. Recent EM PMI indices showed signs of improving economic activity in both manufacturing and services sectors. Last month, seven of the 25 EM central banks we track held monetary policy meetings: one raised rates, four cut rates, and two left rates unchanged. The latest January inflation reports showed continued disinflation across most of key emerging and developing economies. 

China: The central Bank is stepping up the pace of monetary policy easing but the problem remains a lack of loan demand, not the supply or cost of credit.

India: The central bank left rates on hold at its last policy meeting as strong growth and persistent food inflation kept the rate cut door shut.

ASEAN: Vietnam rebounded from a sharp contraction at the start of 2023 and the strong momentum is carrying over into 2024.

Andeans: Growth stalled in 2023 but rate cuts should sow the seeds for a gradual rebound over the next two years