The war in Ukraine will likely lower growth and push inflation higher

Emerging markets growth is likely to slow this year while inflation is heating up. The war in Ukraine is expected to increase downward pressure on growth and upward pressure on inflation, in particular in India and Turkey. Rising commodity prices will put further pressure on inflation and put a dampener on consumption. At the same time, rising prices represents a silver lining to net exporters of commodities, including Brazil and South Africa though higher revenues from these exports.