Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the United Kingdom remained unchanged in February 2022 at 83.2 (2016=100), after increasing 0.4 percent in January 2022. The LEI grew by 2.0 percent in the six-month period from August 2021 to February 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom remained unchanged in February 2022 at 103.9 (2016=100), following a 0.2 increase in January 2022. The CEI declined by 0.1 percent in the six-month period from August 2021 to February 2022.

“The LEI for the UK was unchanged in February as unemployment claims and the yield spread offset weakness in consumer expectations,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The contribution from the yield spread component (which turns negative when short term yields rise above long term yields, signaling an imminent recession) remained slightly positive despite the second rate hike by the Bank of England. Overall, the LEI still points to continued, but slower, economic growth. Although the impact of the war in Ukraine is not yet reflected, it will likely create additional headwinds due to new supply chain disruptions and rising prices in energy, food, and metals markets.” 

The UK LEI was unchanged in February suggesting slower growth in 2022 which may be further challenged by the war in Ukraine

The recent trajectory of the UK LEI points to continued economic growth, though slower, and does not reflect the impact of the war in Ukraine

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for The United Kingdom: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for The United Kingdom include: Unemployment Claimant Counts, Weekly Working Hours, General Economic Situation, Stock Prices, Yield Spread, Productivity, Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations, Housing Sales Expectation.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/    

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org • Learn more about our mission and becoming a member