Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.9 percent in September 2022 to 80.0 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in August. The LEI for the UK contracted by 3.3 in the six-month period ending in September 2022, a reversal from its 1.0 percent growth rate over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom remained unchanged in September 2022 at 103.7 (2016=100), after declining by 0.1 percent in August. The CEI for the UK contracted by 0.3 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, after improving by 0.1 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The UK LEI posted its seventh consecutive decline in September, suggesting recession risks are rising for the UK economy,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Eroding consumer confidence and pessimism about housing sales have persistently drove down the UK LEI recently. While real GDP is likely to grow year-over-year in 2022, the UK economy is likely to see several quarters of negative growth starting in the second half of 2022. The Conference Board recently downgraded its real GDP forecasts to a -0.6 percent average growth rate for the second half of 2022 and to -0.8 percent on average in 2023.” 

The UK LEI continues on a downward trajectory, pointing to slowing growth in the near term 

Worsening consumer confidence and housing sales expectations continue to be the main drivers of the decline 

The six-month growth rate of the LEI fell further into negative territory suggesting recession risks are elavated heading into 2023

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for The United Kingdom: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for The United Kingdom include: Unemployment Claimant Counts, Weekly Working Hours, General Economic Situation, Stock Prices, Yield Spread, Productivity, Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations, Housing Sales Expectation.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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