Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia increased by 0.6 percent in February 2022 to 119.0 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent decline in January. The LEI contracted by 0.3 percent in the six-month period from August 2021 to February 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.1 percent in February 2022 to 111.6 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.3 percent in January. The CEI grew by 2.0 percent in the six-month period between August 2021 and February 2022.

“All components of the index contributed positively in February except real money supply which was pushed down by high inflation. The large February gain in the LEI for Australia suggests the economic outlook may not be as dour as expected,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While the Ukraine war increased risks to global growth this year, rising commodity prices could help offset some of the global challenges ahead for the Australian economy.”

Australia LEI still points to slow growth in 2022, but the economy may benefit from higher commodity prices despite increasing downward risks due to the Ukraine war

The Australia LEI suggested growth could slow, but early 2022 data suggest the outlook may not deteriorate further despite the global risks due to the Ukraine war

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

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