Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Australia, increased by 0.2 percent in July 2023 to 116.8 (2016=100), partially reversing a decline of 0.3 percent in June, based on revised data for the second quarter. Still, the LEI fell by 2.2 percent from January to July 2023, an accelerated rate of decline from the contraction of 0.3 percent over the previous six-month period, between July 2022 and January 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.1 percent in July 2023 to 114.3 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.1 percent in June. The CEI grew by 0.8 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2023, a continuation of the 0.5 percent gain over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Australia rose in July, giving temporary pause to a downtrend that began seven months ago,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “While on a six-month basis, most nonfinancial components of the Australia LEI and stock prices performed positively, July’s reading included new quarterly data and projections for gross operating surplus, which trended down. The trajectory of the leading index remains in decline, suggesting moderating growth ahead, as elevated inflation and tight monetary policy weigh on the economy. The Conference Board currently expects real GDP to expand in Australia by 1.9 percent year-over-year in 2023, a downward revision from 2.2 percent annual growth previously forecasted.”

The LEI for Australia rose in July following several months of decline

Weakness in gross operating surplus weighed negatively on Australia’s LEI over the six month period ending in July

The negative trend in the Australia LEI suggests moderating growth in the near-term

AboutThe Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org