Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia remained unchanged in March 2023 at 120.1 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decrease in February. The LEI increased by 0.9 percent from September 2022 to March 2023, an increase from the growth rate of 0.1 percent over the six-month period between March and September of 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.3 percent in March 2023 to 113.7 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in February. The CEI improved by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from September 2022 to March 2023, slowing sharply from the 1.2 percent gain in the previous six-month period.

“The stagnating growth momentum in the LEI for Australia suggests risks to economic growth remain in the coming months” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “Instability among financial components combined with continued weakness in building approvals offset small gains in all other components. Although the LEI has improved in the last 6 months, headwinds such as record high inflation, faltering external demand, and potential recessions in major economies may begin to curtail growth in the short term. In line with a more pessimistic near-term outlook The Conference Board revised its annual real GDP growth forecast down to 2.1 percent from 2.3 percent for 2023, after growing by 3.7 percent in 2022.”

The LEI for Australia held steady in March

The LEI remained flat as declines in building approvals, the yield spread, and share prices, offset gains among all other components

The year-over-year growth rate of the Australia LEI continued to decline as risks to growth increase

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

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About The Conference Board

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