Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia remained unchanged in May 2022 at 118.9 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent increase in April. The LEI improved by 0.2 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, slower than the 1.0 percent growth over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.4 percent in May 2022 to 112.2 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in April. The CEI improved by 1.4 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, somewhat faster than its 0.6 percent growth between May and November 2021.

“The LEI for Australia held steady in May and the recent trajectory of the index has been essentially flat, suggesting the economy should keep expanding, albeit slower than recent quarters,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The yield spread made the largest positive contribution to the LEI, more than offsetting worsening stock prices and building approvals. Despite headwinds to global growth in the near term, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 3.6 percent in 2022 over 2021 before slowing to 2.2 percent in 2023.”

The Australia LEI suggests slower growth in the short-term 

The large positive contribution from the yield spread was offset by declines in building permits, stock prices, and the sales-to-inventories ratio

The trajectory of the Australia LEI slowed recently, suggesting growth will moderate in 2022

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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