Global Leading Indicators

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Australia, decreased by 0.3 percent in October 2023 to 114.7 (2016=100), following a downwardly revised decline of 0.6 percent in September. The LEI fell by 2.5 percent from April to October 2023, a slightly faster rate of decline than the contraction of 2.0 percent over the previous six-month period, between October 2022 and April 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia increased by 0.3 percent in October 2023 to 114.8 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in September. The CEI grew by 1.0 percent in the six-month period from April to October 2023, following a 0.3 percent gain over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Australia decreased for a third consecutive month in October,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “Financial and non-financial components equally drove the decline. Share prices, rural goods exports, building approvals, and the sales to inventories ratio more than offset the positive contributions from the yield spread and gross operating surplus. The Australia LEI continued its general negative downtrend since December 2022, and the leading indicator continues to suggest headwinds to economic growth ahead. For these reasons, The Conference Board currently expects real GDP to expand in Australia by 2.0 percent year-over-year in 2023, but to moderate to 1.1 percent growth in 2024.”

The LEI for Australia fell slightly in October

Nearly all components contributed to the decline of the Australia LEI in October

Australia’s 6-month growth rate remained negative and suggests a slowdown in economic growth ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org