Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:00 AM ET, May 14, 2024

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas,increased by 0.2 percent in April 2024 to 124.1 (2016=100), after a downwardly revised increase of 0.1 percent in March. The LEI expanded by 2.1 percent over the six-month period between October 2023 and April 2024, a slightly slower pace than the 2.9 percent growth over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased also by 0.2 percent in April 2024 to 112.8 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.1 percent in March. The CEI grew by 2.4 percent over the six-month period between October 2023 and April 2024, after a 1.8 percent increase over the previous six-month period.

“The Brazil LEI increased in April,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “The slight increase reflects mixed performance among the components. Substantial improvements in consumer confidence, manufacturing business confidence, and the terms of trade index more than offset weakness in the remaining five components of the LEI. The LEIs annual growth remains robust and still signals favorable economic conditions in the near term. However, it does not take into account the catastrophic floods that ravaged southern Brazil in May. In addition to the devastating impact on the local population, the floods are disrupting economic activity and will likely slow economic growth in Q2 while also putting upward pressure on inflation".  

The Conference Board/Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI slightly increased in April

 *CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

Increases in consumer expectations, manufacturing business expectations and terms of trade led the uptick in the LEI, despite weakness in the five other components

The year-over-year growth rate of the Brazil LEI has slowed but remains robust 

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil

Together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org

ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre