Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 0.3 percent in April to 117.0 (2016=100), after an increase of 1.8 percent in March. The LEI contracted by 0.2 percent in the six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023, a reversal from the 1.9 percent growth over the six-month period from April to October 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, also increased by 0.3 percent in April 2023 to 108.0 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.6 percent in March. The CEI grew by 0.8 percent in the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023, a slowdown from its 2.5 percent growth rate over the previous six-month span.

“The Brazil LEI increased in April signaling that economic headwinds may be easing” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “However, the LEI’s slow growth trajectory suggests the Brazilian economy still faces downside risks. Potential recessions in large economies, tumult in domestic politics, and decreasing global demand could pose threats to growth in the near term. Despite the risks, The Conference Board has revised its 2023 forecast for year-over-year GDP growth in Brazil up to 0.9 percent from 0.5 percent.”

The Conference Board/ Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI increased in April

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

The LEI climbed as the Terms of Trade Index, durable consumer goods production, and both financial components contributed positively

The trajectory of the annual growth rate for the Brazil LEI has stagnated over the last few months

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre