Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas,ticked up by 0.1 percent in August 2023 to 120.1 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.8 percent in July. The LEI grew by 4.9 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2023, a reversal from a decline of 1.5 percent over the previous six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 0.7 percent in August 2023 to 110.6 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.8 percent in July. The CEI grew by 3.1 percent in the six-month period between February to August 2023, faster than its 0.7 percent growth rate over the previous six-month span.

“The Brazil LEI rose in August for a fourth consecutive month,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Most LEI components were slightly positive or flat in August, although these readings were offset in part by a decline in stock prices. While economic growth was positive at the start of 2023, the effects of tighter monetary policy, elevated inflation, and fading current stimulus programs may weigh on growth going forward. Taken together, the LEI still suggests that the Brazilian economy will expand in the near term. The Conference Board expects that real GDP in Brazil will grow by 3.0 percent year-over-year in 2023 – an upward revision from the previous 2.5 percent growth projection.”

The Conference Board/Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI ticked up in August

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

Most LEI components were slightly positive or flat in August 

The Brazil LEI continues to trend upward suggesting continued expansion ahead

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil

Together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org

ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre