Global Leading Indicators

This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas,rose by 0.8 percent in December 2023 to 123.1 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.7 percent in November. The LEI grew by 2.2 percent in the six-month period from June to December 2023, a slower rate than the 3.2 percent growth over the previous six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 1.3 percent in December 2023 to 113.0 (2016=100), tacking on another month of increases since May 2023. The CEI grew by 4.0 percent in the six-month period from June to December 2023, after growing at a rate of 1.2 percent in the first half of 2023.

“The Brazil LEI increased in December after increasing in the previous month,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “Most components of the LEI improved in December except for the Expectations Index for the services sector and exports volume. Like the December change, positive contributions from all financial components also helped drive the positive six-month rate of change in the index. Gains in these components more than offset negative contributions from deteriorating business expectations and weakness in the durable consumer goods production index over the second half of 2023. While growth in LEI is still positive, it is less robust, signaling possible downward pressures on economic growth ahead. The Conference Board forecasts that real GDP in Brazil expanded by 3.2 percent year-over-year in 2023 but will moderate to just 2.2 percent growth in 2024.”

The Conference Board/Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI increased in December

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

Despite worsening business and consumer expectations on a six-month basis, the LEI remains resilient

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post- benchmark revisions: 1996-present

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil

Together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org

ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre