Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:00 AM ET, March 14, 2024

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, decreased by 0.5 percent in February 2024 to 124.7 (2016=100), partially reversing the 0.8 percent increase in January. Regardless of the recent decline, the LEI expanded by 2.2 percent in the six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024, a much slower rate than the 5.4 percent growth over the previous six-month period ending in August 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 1.2 percent in February 2024 to 113.9 (2016=100), sustaining successive increases for the past twelve months. The CEI grew by 4.0 percent over the six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024, twice as fast as the 2.0 percent growth over the previous six-month period.

“The Brazil LEI decreased in February, after increasing for three consecutive months,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “The February contraction was driven by weakness in non-financial components—most notably in services sector business expectations and consumer expectations, as well as exports volume and production of durable consumer goods. However, the year-over-year growth rate of the Brazil LEI remains strong. Currently, The Conference Board forecasts that real GDP growth in Brazil will rebound in 2024 after stalling in the second half of 2023.”

The Conference Board/Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI decreased in February

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

Weakness among non-financial components drove the LEI’s decline in February

The year-over-year growth rate of the Brazil LEI remains strong

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil

Together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org

ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre