Global Leading Indicators

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, decreased by 0.3% in November 2024 to 124.1 (2016=100), following a revised decrease of 0.1% in October. Despite the four consecutive monthly declines, the LEI still expanded by 0.9% over the six-month period between May and November 2024, a much faster rate than the 0.1% growth over the previous six-month period between November 2023 and May 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 1.6% in November 2024 to 117.7 (2016=100), after a revised increase of 1.1% in October. As a result, the CEI expanded by 3.4% over the six-month period between May and November 2024 after expanding by 2.7% over the previous six-month period.

“The Brazil LEI decreased in November, marking its fourth consecutive month of decline,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “Concerns about accelerating inflation and increasing public debt persisted in November. This is reflected by the negative contributions from financial components and business expectations, resulting in the decline of the LEI. While the slowing annual LEI growth already suggested some challenges for the Brazilian economy in the near term, monetary and fiscal tightening may add downward pressure to economic growth ahead. Acknowledging increasing inflation expectations and the exchange rate depreciation, the Central Bank of Brazil raised the Selic rate by 100 basis points in December. Moreover, the government recently announced spending cuts to meet the primary deficit target required by the new fiscal framework. In line with this, The Conference Board expects real GDP growth to reach 3.3% in 2024 and moderate to 2.2% in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at 10 A.M. ET.