Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 1.4 percent in June 2023 to 119.5 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.9 percent in May, based upon revised data. The LEI grew by 3.5 percent in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023, a faster rate of growth than 0.3 percent over the previous six-month period from June to December 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, remained unchanged in June 2023 at 109.0 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.3 percent in May. The CEI grew by 1.8 percent in the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023, faster than its 1.4 percent growth rate over the previous six-month span.

“June’s increase in the Brazil LEI was driven by both financial and non-financial components,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The positive upward trajectory of the LEI suggests that the Brazilian economy may grow near term. While tax reforms will take a long time to be implemented and to see meaningful impact on the economy, anticipated tax breaks are already reflected in stronger industrial production figures. However, domestic growth is still challenged by sluggish confidence and underlying weaknesses in large global markets. The Conference Board expects that real GDP in Brazil will grow by 2.5 percent year-over-year in 2023 but will decelerate to 1.3 percent in 2024.”

The Conference Board/Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI surged in June

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available 

June’s increase was driven by both financial and non-financial components 

The trajectory of the Brazil LEI continues its upward trend, but external weaknesses pose downside risks

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org

ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre