Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:00 AM ET, July 15, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 0.2 percent in June 2024 to 123.0 (2016=100), after a substantial decrease of 0.9 percent in May. Over the first half of 2024, the LEI contracted by 1.0 percent, after expanding by 3.2 percent over the second half of the last year.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, decreased by 0.2 percent in June 2024 to 113.9 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.3 percent in May. Over the first half of 2024, the CEI increased by 2.3 percent, a similar rate to the 2.4 percent increase over the second half of 2023.

“In June, the Brazil LEI recovered slightly from the May drop that was largely caused by dampened consumer and services sector confidence, and goods production due to the devastating floods in the south of the country,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “A rebound in consumer expectations, business expectations in the services sector, and improved stock prices fueled June’s recovery in the Index. Nevertheless, as a result of large month-on-month contractions in February and May, the LEI’s six-month growth rate has become negative. Additionally, the annual growth rate, though still positive, has decelerated, suggesting potential downward pressures ahead for economic activity in Brazil. Against this backdrop The Conference Board currently projects Brazil’s real GDP to grow at 1.9 percent in 2024 after 2.9 percent in 2023.”

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, August 14, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.