Global Leading Indicators

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, decreased by 1.5 percent in November 2022 to 114.4 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.2 percent in October. The LEI rose by 1.2 percent in the six-month period from May to November 2022, an increase from the 0.3 percent growth over the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 0.8 percent in November to 110.5 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.6 percent in October. The CEI grew by 3.1 percent in the six-month period between May and November 2022, maintaining the same growth rate as the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022.

“The sharp decline in November’s Brazil LEI suggests the economy may struggle to maintain its recent momentum, and could stall in the new year,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “The LEI’s decline was driven by significant weakness in financial components as well as worsening manufacturing, service, and consumer expectations. Global headwinds, such as increasingly tight monetary policy conditions and potential recessions in major economies, will most likely weigh on the economy. The Conference Board still forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth to slow to 1.5 percent in 2022 before turning slightly negative in 2023.”

Although annual growth is positive, the recent decline in the LEI suggests there are threats to short term growth

Widespread strength among the components drove LEI improvements earlier in 2022, but the latest readings show stalled or negative contributions across the board

The Conference Board/ Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI decreased in November

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre