Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:00 AM ET, November 14, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, decreased by 0.4% in October 2024 to 124.0 (2016=100), following a downwardly revised decline of 0.2% in September. Overall, the LEI increased only by 0.2% over the six-month period between April and October 2024, a significantly slower pace than the 1.8% growth over the previous six-month period between October 2023 and April 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, inched up by 0.2% in October 2024 to 113.4 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in September. Despite this slight improvement, the CEI contracted by 0.2% over the six-month period between April and October 2024 after expanding by 3.1% over the previous six-month period.

“The Brazil LEI decreased in October, and following the downward revision of the September LEI, the Index marked its third consecutive month of decline,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “Nearly all components negatively contributed to the LEI, with notably large negative contributions from swap rates and from consumer expectations that dropped after 4 successive months of increase. Swap rates were a significant driver of the decline of the Index not only in October but also over the past 6 months. This may indicate that the financial markets are concerned with accelerating inflation and increasing public debt. Early November, the Central Bank of Brazil increased the Selic interest rate by 50 basis points. Moreover, the committee highlighted the need for more disciplined fiscal policy. While the impact of the recent rate hike is not yet reflected in the LEI, the significant slowing of the six-month growth rate of LEI suggests moderating activity in the near-term.”

The next release is scheduled for Friday, December 13, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.