Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased by 1.0 percent in September 2022 to 115.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.6 percent in August. The LEI rose by 1.3 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, a turnaround from the 2.7 percent contraction over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), increased by 0.4 percent in August to 108.9 (2016=100), after a slight decrease of 0.1 percent in August. The CEI grew by 2.5 percent in the six-month period between March and September 2022, about the same pace as the 2.7 percent growth over the previous six-month period.

“Back-to-back monthly gains in the TCB/FGV Brazil LEI suggest improving growth prospects in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Inflationary pressures eased further, and the most recent gain in the LEI was driven primarily by improving consumer expectations. However, the slowing global economy in late 2022 and uncertainty about global trade could pose headwinds for Brazil’s economy in 2023. The Conference Board still forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth to slow to 1.5 percent in 2022.”

The TCB/FGV Brazil LEI increased in September 

Over the last six months negative contributions among financial components were more than offset by the contributions from business and consumer expectations 

The trajectory of the Brazil LEI points to continued growth

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

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ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre