Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China increased 0.6 percent in February 2022 to 172.2 (2016=100), following a 1.1 percent increase in January. The LEI grew by 4.7 percent in the six-month period from August 2021 to February 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China decreased 0.7 percent in February 2022 to 141.4 (2016=100). The CEI grew by 6.4 percent in the six-month period between August 2021 to February 2022.

“The February increase in the China LEI suggests economic growth should continue, but the growth outlook may face headwinds from a new COVID-19 surge and the war in Ukraine,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board.

 China LEI increased in February suggesting economic growth should continue, but may face headwinds from COVID-19 surge and the Ukraine crisis

The recent trajectory of the China LEI points to slower economic growth amid increased risks from COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by about 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of business cycle peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include Consumer Expectation Index, PMI: Mfg: New Export Order, 5000 Industrial Enterprises Survey, Logistics Prosperity Index, Loan: Medium & Long Term, Floor Space Started, City Labor Market: Demand, and Imports: Machinery and Transport Equipment.

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About The Conference Board

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