Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China decreased by 0.5 percent in July 2022 to 165.8 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent decline in June. In addition, the LEI contracted by 3.1 percent from January to July of 2022, a reversal from its 4.3 percent growth over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China decreased by 0.2 percent in July 2022 to 138.5 (2016=100), after a 4.0 percent increase in June. The CEI contracted by 2.5 percent in the six-month period between January and July 2022, a reversal from its 7.6 percent growth between July 2021 and January 2022.

“The China LEI declined in five of the last six months pointing to increased recession risk,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While all nonfinancial components worsened, the erosion in consumer expectations was by far the worst. Amid rising new COVID-19 cases and deteriorating outlooks for the real estate sector and global growth, the LEI suggests there are significant challenges to economic growth in the second half of 2022.”

The decline in the China LEI reflects increasing domestic risks to near-term economic growth 

Consumer expectations led the LEI’s decline, while all non-financial components contributed negatively

The China LEI suggests recession risks are elevated in the near term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for China include Consumer Expectation Index, PMI: Mfg: New Export Order, 5000 Industrial Enterprises Survey, Logistics Prosperity Index, Loan: Medium & Long Term, Floor Space Started, City Labor Market: Demand, and Imports: Machinery and Transport Equipment.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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