Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China decreased by 0.4 percent in June 2022 to 166.4 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in May. In addition, the LEI contracted by 1.7 percent in the first half of 2022, a reversal from its 3.1 percent growth over the second half of 2021.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China increased by 4.5 percent in June 2022 to 139.3 (2016=100), after a 2.7 percent increase in May. The CEI expanded by 2.8 percent in the six-month period between December 2021 and June 2022, much faster than its 0.1 percent growth between June and December 2021.

“The China LEI declined for the fourth consecutive month in June as risks to economic growth in the near-term continue to rise,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The sharp decline in consumer expectations more than offset improvements in loans to medium and large firms and residential building. Slowing global growth combined with COVID-19 restrictions and a flagging housing market are creating significant challenges to China’s short-term growth prospects.”

Declines in China LEI are reflecting increasing headwinds due to domestic woes and global slowing

The large negative contribution from consumer expectations was a leading cause of the LEI’s decline

The recent trajectory of the China LEI points to slowing economic growth in the short-term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include Consumer Expectation Index, PMI: Mfg: New Export Order, 5000 Industrial Enterprises Survey, Logistics Prosperity Index, Loan: Medium & Long Term, Floor Space Started, City Labor Market: Demand, and Imports: Machinery and Transport Equipment.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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