Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China decreased by 0.1 percent in March 2022 to 171.9 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent increase in February. The LEI grew by 3.8 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China decreased by 3.7 percent in March 2022 to 136.1 (2016=100), after a 0.7 percent decline in February. The CEI grew by 2.3 percent in the six-month period between September 2021 to March 2022.

“With the March decrease – first since May 2020 - the recent trajectory of the China LEI points to slower economic growth. Increasing headwinds from the COVID-19 surge as well as the impact of the Ukraine war on global supply chains and energy, food, and metals prices may curb growth further,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The coincident economic index, a measure of current economic conditions that tracks GDP, registered its largest drop since the pandemic induced global recession began in February 2020.”

China LEI decreased in March reflecting increasing headwinds from a new COVID-19 surge and the Ukraine war

The recent trajectory of the China LEI points to slower economic growth amid increased risks from COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include Consumer Expectation Index, PMI: Mfg: New Export Order, 5000 Industrial Enterprises Survey, Logistics Prosperity Index, Loan: Medium & Long Term, Floor Space Started, City Labor Market: Demand, and Imports: Machinery and Transport Equipment.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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