Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China decreased by 0.5 percent in October 2022 to 163.3 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent decline in September. In addition, the LEI contracted by 2.7 percent from April to October of 2022, a reversal from its 0.9 percent growth over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China decreased by 0.9 percent in October 2022 to 138.0 (2016=100), after a 0.1 percent decrease in September. The CEI grew by 6.3 percent in the six-month period between April and October 2022, a rebound from the 3.1 percent decline between October 2021 and April 2022.

“The China LEI declined for the eighth consecutive month, pointing to substantially elevated risk of a downturn in the short term,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “Consumer expectations have driven the LEI lower in recent months, likely reflecting pessimism about persistent COVID-19 restrictions. Downside risks to the Chinese economy are pervasive as exports slow, the property downturn continues, and Covid-19 cases and lockdowns persist. The Conference Board downgraded its real GDP growth forecasts for year-over-year growth for 2022 to 3.3 percent down from 3.7 percent, and 5.1 percent, down from 5.3 percent, for 2023.”

The trajectory of the LEI points to continuing economic headwinds

Over the past 6 months, consumer expectations and the logistics prosperity index led the decline in the LEI 

Decline in China LEI suggests a slowing economic growth outlook while current conditions (CEI) show continuing volatility

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for China include Consumer Expectation Index, PMI: Mfg: New Export Order, 5000 Industrial Enterprises Survey, Logistics Prosperity Index, Loan: Medium & Long Term, Floor Space Started, City Labor Market: Demand, and Imports: Machinery and Transport Equipment.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org • Learn more about our mission and becoming a member