Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China decreased by 0.4 percent in September 2022 to 164.0 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent decline in August. In addition, the LEI contracted by 4.3 percent from March to September of 2022, a reversal from its 3.5 percent growth over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China decreased by 0.4 percent in September 2022 to 138.6 (2016=100), after a 0.9 percent increase in August. The CEI grew by 0.5 percent in the six-month period between March and September 2022, a slowdown from its 3.6 percent growth between September 2021 and March 2022.

“The China LEI declined for a seventh consecutive month, as recession risks remain elevated,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “The largest negative contributor to the index was consumer expectations, reflecting consumer weariness over persistent COVID-19 lockdowns, which more than offset a positive contribution from medium- and long-term loans. Downside risks to the Chinese economy are pervasive as Covid-19 cases rise, exports slow, and the property downturn continues.”

Decline in China LEI reflects a slowing economic growth outlook 

Over the past 6 months, negative consumer expectations and a declining logistics prosperity index led the decline in the LEI 

The trajectory of the China LEI suggests recession risks persist

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for China include Consumer Expectation Index, PMI: Mfg: New Export Order, 5000 Industrial Enterprises Survey, Logistics Prosperity Index, Loan: Medium & Long Term, Floor Space Started, City Labor Market: Demand, and Imports: Machinery and Transport Equipment.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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