Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the Euro Area decreased by 0.5 percent in June 2022 to 114.7 (2016=100), following a decrease of 0.3 percent in May. The LEI declined by 0.1 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, in contrast to the increase of 4.8 percent over the previous six-months .

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Euro Area increased by 0.1 percent in June 2022 to 106.5 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in May. The CEI grew by 0.7 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, following an increase of 1.1 percent from June to December 2021.

“The LEI for the Euro Area has been on a downward trend since February as the war in Ukraine has reduced impacted energy supplies and stoked inflation,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The recent trajectory of the leading index points to slower economic growth ahead for the Euro Area. The Conference Board projects real GDP growth of about 2.7 percent year-over-year for 2022 -- representing a downgrade from 3.8 percent forecasted before the war -- and the growth projection for 2023 was also downgraded to 1.0 percent from 1.7 percent pre-war.” 

The Euro Area LEI declined in June reflecting headwinds from inflation and disruptions from the war in Ukraine

The decline in the LEI was driven by worsening consumer expectations, lower manufacturing orders, and financial stress

The year-over-year decline points to worsening economic prospects

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Euro Area: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 1 month. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the Euro Area include: ECB Yield Spread, Consumer Expectation of General Economy, Manufacturing New Orders, Volume of Order Books, Business Expectations Survey, Eurostoxx Index, Systemic Stress Composite Indicator, Building Permits.

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