Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the Euro Area decreased by 0.4 percent in March 2022 to 115.7 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.6 percent in February 2022. However, the LEI grew by 2.8 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Euro Area increased by 0.1 percent in March 2022 to 106.0 (2016=100), after increasing by the same amount in February 2022. The CEI grew by 1.0 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

“The LEI for the Euro Area declined in March for the first time since February 2021. The decrease was driven by consumer expectations, stock prices, and financial stress components reflecting the initial impact of the Ukraine war on the Euro Area economy,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The global impact of the war on supply chains and soaring energy, food, and metals prices are all likely to create additional headwinds to the economic outlook.”

 The recent trajectory of the Euro Area LEI suggests risks to the outlook in 2022, with the war in Ukraine likely to increase headwinds

The recent trajectory of the LEI points to increasing headwinds to economic growth in 2022 with increasing downside risks due to the war in Ukraine

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Euro Area: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 1 month. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the Euro Area include: ECB Yield Spread, Consumer Expectation of General Economy, Manufacturing New Orders, Volume of Order Books, Business Expectations Survey, Eurostoxx Index, Systemic Stress Composite Indicator, Building Permits.

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