Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France declined by 0.1 percent in August 2023 to 119.0 (2016=100), after a 0.2 percent decrease in July. The LEI grew by 0.8 percent in the six-month period between February and August 2023, slightly slower than the 1.1 percent growth over the previous six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France remained unchanged at 110.1 in August 2023 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in July. The CEI grew by 0.4 percent during the six-month period between February and August 2023, a slightly lower pace of increase than the 0.6 percent rise over the previous six-month period.

“The France LEI ticked down in August and is only slightly off the high reading reached in June of this year,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Nonetheless, the growth trajectory of the France LEI is turning downward, suggesting a plateau to economic growth momentum. Weakness in the France LEI in August and over the most recent six months was led by industrial new orders and the yield spread. The LEI suggests that growth will remain soft in the face of inflationary pressures. The Conference Board predicts that real GDP will expand by a tepid 0.9 percent year-over-year in 2023.”

The France LEI ticked down in August 

Weakness in the France LEI was led by industrial new orders and the yield spread

The France LEI continued to decline, suggesting more modest growth ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 12 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org