Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France remained unchanged in December 2022 at 117.3 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decrease in November. The LEI grew by 1.7 percent in the six-month period between June and December 2022, slower than the 2.5 percent growth over the previous six-months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France increased by 0.1 percent in December 2022 to 109.6 (2016=100), after rising by 0.3 percent in November. The CEI grew by 0.9 percent during the six-month period between June and November 2022, after rising by 0.7 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022.

“The LEI for France held steady in December, suggesting the economy should continue growing in the near term, but perhaps at a moderating pace,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Strength in financial components of the LEI offset weaknesses in nonfinancial components in December. However, unemployment claims, building permits, and production expectations signal more weakness ahead. While France may avoid a recession in early 2023, real GDP growth could slow to a modest 0.4 percent rate year over year.”

The France LEI remained unchanged in December 

Strength in the stock market and yield spread offset weaknesses in non-financial components in December

Slowing trajectory of the LEI for France could be signaling more moderate growth ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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