Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for France increased by 0.3 percent in February 2022 to 106.9 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in January. The LEI grew by 1.2 percent in the six-month period from August 2021 to February 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France increased by 0.1 percent in February 2022 to 107.2 (2016=100). The CEI grew by 1.0 percent in the six-month period between August 2021 to February 2022.

“The LEI for France rose again in February pointing to continuing economic growth in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Improvement in a majority of the components offset rising unemployment claims and falling stock prices. However, headwinds from the Ukraine war could result in slower-than-anticipated economic growth in the first half of the year.”

France LEI improved in February suggesting further growth in the short-term but Ukraine crisis poses downward risks to the economic outlook

The recent behavior of the leading indicators point to continued economic growth but headwinds from the Ukraine war may curb growth in the near term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of business cycle peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

# EONIA - Euro Day-to-Day Weighted Average Interest Rate data used in the Yield Spread component of the France LEI was discontinued by the European Central Bank (ECB) in Feb ‘22. As a result, Feb ‘22 calculations of the LEI utilized a statistical imputation of the Feb ‘22 value of EONIA. The Conference Board is conducting research for an appropriate replacement and when that is available a new yield spread component will be incorporated into the LEI for France.

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