Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France improved by 0.3 percent in January 2023 to 118.1 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in December 2022. The LEI grew by 1.8 percent in the six-month period between July 2022 and January 2023, slower than the 2.9 percent change over the previous six-months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France remained unchanged in January 2023 at 109.4 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in December 2022. The CEI grew by 0.7 percent during the six-month period between July 2022 and January 2023, a similar rate of growth as 0.6 percent in the previous six-month period (January to July 2022).

“The LEI for France improved in January 2023, and its positive growth trajectory suggests the economy should continue growing in the near term,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Financial components, as well as residential building permits were the largest positive contributors to the LEI. However, potential risks to the economic outlook could develop as core inflation remains high and industrial new orders as well as manufacturing production expectations have been persistently weak over the last six months.  Moreover, the recent pension protests, if they persist, may also create headwinds to economic growth prospects this year. Nevertheless, The Conference Board projects that real GDP growth will be 0.7 percent year-over-year in 2023, upwardly revised from a previous 0.4 percent projection.”

The France LEI improved again in January 2023 

Financial components and residential building permits more than offset weakness in other components in January 

The trajectory of the LEI for France picked up to start 2023, signaling GDP growth could strengthen in the near term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

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