Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France increased by 0.2 percent in March 2023 to 118.4 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent increase in February. The LEI grew by 1.2 percent in the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023, a more moderate pace than the 3.4 percent growth in the previous six-month period (March to September 2022).

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France was unchanged in March 2023 at 109.5 (2016=100), after rising by 0.1 percent in February. The CEI grew by 0.3 percent during the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023, a relatively flat period, after growing by 1.0 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for France continued its positive growth trajectory, suggesting a possible improvement in economic growth near-term,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Non-financial components of the France LEI continued a gradual recovery from weakness over the past six months consistent with an improving, albeit uncertain, outlook. However, building permits, new unemployment claims, and new orders for industrial goods remain negative. And sticky core inflation and higher interest rates remain headwinds to growth.  Despite continuing risks to the outlook, The Conference Board currently predicts that real GDP growth will expand by 0.8 percent year-over-year in 2023, upwardly revised from 0.5 percent.”

The France LEI increased again in March 

Non-financial components of the France LEI continued a gradual recovery from weakness over the past six months 

The positive trajectory of the France LEI suggests growth could strengthen in the near term, despite headwinds from inflation and higher interest rates

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 12 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org