Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for France rose by 0.3 percent in May 2022 to 113.7 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent increase in April. The LEI grew by 1.3 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, faster than its 0.2 percent growth rate between May and November 2021.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France rose by 0.2 percent in May 2022 to 107.3 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in April. The CEI grew by 0.5 percent in the six-month period between November 2021 and May 2022, much slower than its 2.2 percent growth rate over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for France rose again in May and its recent trajectory suggests economic growth will continue in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “In May, worsening production expectations, stock prices, and building permits were offset by a large positive contribution from the yield spread. High inflation and rising interest rates as well as slowing Euro Area growth continue to pose downside risks to the economic outlook for France. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.3 percent in 2022 before slowing to 1.1 percent next year.”

Rising trajectory of the France LEI suggests the economy should continue growing in the short-term

Positive contribution from the yield spread offset declines among other components

The growth rate of the LEI points to continued economic growth, but slower compared to a year ago

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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