Global Leading Indicators

This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France fell slightly by 0.2 percent in November 2022 to 117.3 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent increase in October. The LEI grew by 2.4 percent in the six-month period between May and November 2022, an acceleration from 1.6 percent growth over the previous six-months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France improved by 0.3 percent in November 2022 to 109.4 (2016=100), after ticking down by 0.1 percent in October. The CEI grew by 0.9 percent during the six-month period between May and November 2022, after a 0.8 percent increase between November 2021 and May 2022.

“The LEI for France dipped in November but the index was still well above its level six months ago after gaining consistently since the beginning of 2022,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The LEI for France suggests the economy should continue growing, but perhaps at a moderating pace. Financial components and production expectations have supported the gains in the index. However, industrial new orders, building permits, and unemployment claims signal more weakness. The Conference Board expects that growth was flat in Q4 2022 and will remain so in Q1 2023. While France may avoid a recession in early 2023, real GDP growth could slow to a modest 0.4 percent rate year over year.”

The France LEI dipped in November after 10 months of gains 

Decline in building permits and industrial new orders more than offset gains in financial components 

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post- benchmark revisions: 1970-present 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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