Global Leading Indicators

This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France fell by 0.3 percent in November 2023 to 113.2 (2016=100), after also declining by 0.3 percent in October. As a result, the LEI contracted by 1.0 percent in the six-month period from May to November 2023, partially reversing the 1.3 percent growth over the previous six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France rose by 0.2 percent to 110.9 (2016=100) in November 2023, after being unchanged in October. The CEI grew by 0.1 percent during the six-month period between May and November 2023, a slower pace than the 0.5 percent rise over the previous six-month period.

“The France LEI fell in November, marking a fifth consecutive month of declines,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The November dip was led by negative contributions from the yield spread and new unemployment claims, offsetting rising stock prices and building permits. The softening trajectory of the France LEI suggests possible moderation in growth near term. The Conference Board predicts that real GDP expanded by 0.8 percent year-over-year in 2023 and will grow by 0.9 percent in 2024.”

The France LEI declined for a fifth consecutive month 

The November dip was led by the yield spread and new unemployment claims 

The downward trajectory of the France LEI suggests moderation in near term growth

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post- benchmark revisions: 1970-present

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 12 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org