Global Leading Indicators

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France fell by 0.3 percent in October 2023 to 117.8 (2016=100), after also declining by 0.3 percent in September. As a result, the LEI contracted by 0.8 percent in the six-month period from April to October 2023, partially reversing the 1.1 percent growth over the previous six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023.

 The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France ticked up by 0.1 percent to 109.8 (2016=100) in October 2023, erasing a 0.1 percent loss in September. The CEI grew by 0.2 percent during the six-month period between April and October 2023, a slower pace than the 0.6 percent rise over the previous six-month period.

“The France LEI fell for a fourth consecutive month in October,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The monthly decline was led by weakening industry production expectations on the nonfinancial side, and negative contributions from the yield spread and stock prices on the financial side. The trajectory of the France LEI has softened since the middle of the year, suggesting some growth pressures in the months ahead. Currently, The Conference Board predicts that real GDP will expand by 0.8 percent year-over-year in 2023 and by 0.9 percent in 2024.”

The France LEI continued to fall in October 

The decline in October was led by weakening industry production expectations, the yield spread, and stock prices 

The France LEI has trended downward since Q2, suggesting moderation in growth in the months ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 12 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org