Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany decreased by 0.7 percent in August 2023 to 90.7 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in July. The LEI contracted by 1.3 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2023, an accelerated contraction from the 0.6 percent decline over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany slipped by 0.1 percent in August 2023, back to the June level of 104.6 (2016=100). The CEI fell by 0.1 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2023, following a 0.9 percent increase over the previous six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023.

“The LEI for Germany declined in August, interrupting this year’s recovery,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “While the inverted yield spread and declining stock prices continued to weigh negatively on the Germany LEI, consumer confidence and new orders for investment goods (3-month average) also took a notable turn for the worst in August. Elevated inflation and higher interest rates appeared to weigh on consumer’s economic, income, and buying plans expectations. Based on the latest estimate from The Conference Board, Germany’s real GDP is projected to contract by 0.4 percent year-over-year in 2023 but to pick up modestly in 2024.”

The LEI for Germany fell in August

Financial components of the Germany LEI remained negative, and consumer confidence and new orders for investment goods flagged in August

The trajectory of the LEI, while much improved from last year, is still in negative territory

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org