Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany remained unchanged in July 2023 at 91.1 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.6 percent in June. The LEI declined by 0.2 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2023, a milder contraction than the 1.2 percent decline over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany also held steady in July 2023 at 104.7 (2016=100), after slipping by 0.1 percent in June. The CEI grew by 0.2 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2023, following a 0.6 percent increase over the previous six-month period from July 2022 to January 2023.

“The LEI for Germany held steady in July,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Incremental improvements in nonfinancial components and stock prices offset a negative contribution from the yield spread in July’s reading. The German economy is still showing weakness from elevated inflation and higher interest rates. As prices continue to ease in the second half of the year and consumer confidence continues its gradual recovery, growth may start to pick up again. Following a recession at the end of 2022 and stagnation in Q2, Germany’s real GDP is projected to contract by 0.2 percent year-over-year in 2023, based on the latest estimate from The Conference Board.”

The LEI for Germany held steady in July 

Incremental improvements in nonfinancial components and stock prices offset a negative contribution from the yield spread in July’s Germany LEI reading

The annual growth rate of the LEI for Germany, continued to improve, but remained negative

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org