Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, August 14, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany declined slightly by 0.2 percent in June 2024 to 87.7 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.3 percent in May. Overall, the LEI for Germany contracted by 1.9 percent over the first half of 2024, a slower rate of decline than the 3.9 percent contraction over the second half of last year.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany rose by 0.2 percent in June 2024 to 104.1 (2016=100), partially reversing a 0.3 percent decline in May. Over the first six months of 2024, the CEI for Germany grew by 0.4 percent, partially reversing a 0.7 percent decline over the second half of 2023.

“The LEI for Germany dipped for a second consecutive month in June,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “However, negative contributions were concentrated among financial components (the yield spread and stock prices) and all non-financial components, but consumer confidence contributed positively. In addition, over the past six months, four of the seven components contributed positively, which is a notable improvement from a few months ago when weakness was widespread among almost all components. The longer-term trajectory of the Germany LEI, while weakening, did not signal a forthcoming recession in May and June. Real GDP declined slightly in the second quarter. The LEI suggests that economic headwinds while still present are unlikely to intensify going forward and Germany could experience some positive growth in the second half of the year.”

The next release is scheduled for Monday, September 16, 2024, at 9:30 A.M. ET.