Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany decreased by 1.4 percent in March 2022 to 96.4 (2016=100), after rising by 0.1 percent in February 2022. The LEI declined by 2.6 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany decreased by 0.3 percent in March 2022 to 103.5 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent rise in February 2022. The CEI grew by 0.8 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

“The large March decline in the LEI for Germany reflects increasing risks of slowing economic growth in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economic Research, at The Conference Board. “The decline in the LEI was driven by deteriorating consumer expectations and stock prices. The war in Ukraine creates significant headwinds for expectations for the near-term economic outlook.” 

The LEI decreased in March suggesting slowing growth in the near term. The economy will likely face additional headwinds from the war in Ukraine.

The recent trajectory of the Germany LEI points to slower economic growth with increasing downside risks from the war in Ukraine.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/    

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org • Learn more about our mission and becoming a member