Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany declined by 0.5 percent in May 2023 to 91.1 (2016=100), after ticking down by 0.1 percent in April. Despite recent monthly declines, the LEI grew by 0.8 percent in the six-month period from November 2022 to May 2023, a reversal from a contraction of 3.7 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany improved moderately by 0.1 percent in May 2023 to 104.7 (2016=100), after being unchanged in April. The CEI grew by 0.3 percent in the six-month period from November 2022 to May 2023, following a 0.5 percent increase over the previous six-month period, from May to November 2022.

“The LEI for Germany pulled back in May, and as a result the six-month growth rate, while positive, lost some momentum,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “As the LEI recovers from the depths reached last year, the latest reading suggests downside risks remain primarily due to high inflation and tightening credit conditions. While consumer confidence has recovered, weakness persists in new residential construction orders, new orders for investment goods, and the yield spread. Although Germany is in a technical recession which started in Q4 2022, The Conference Board expects some firming in growth in the second half of the year. Nonetheless, Germany’s real GDP is projected to contract by 0.6 percent year-over-year in 2023.”

The LEI for Germany slipped further in May 

The LEI for Germany pulled back in May, with negative contributions from new orders for investment goods and the yield spread

The annual growth rate of the LEI for Germany remains negative, suggesting headwinds to growth ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org